If I Was Cameron I’d Be Very Worried About Now…

So it’s looking less and less likely that Cameron will actually be able to get his party to keep their end of the coalition agreement on any important matters.

And now Louise Mensch has resigned.

Mensch is MP for a highly-marginal seat, which *will* fall to Labour in the by-election. That’s a drop of two in the government majority, right at the time the Lib Dems will be most completely disenchanted with the Tories.

It would take only a very small number of Tory MPs losing their seats, dying, or resigning to make the Parliamentary arithmetic much more unstable than it currently is. A handful of new Labour MPs — or a few Tory defections to UKIP — and it suddenly becomes much more possible for the Lib Dems to switch to working with Labour instead of the Tories.

If Milliband plays things right — if he decides to work with the Lib Dems to get Lords reform through, rather than the tactic he was recently taking of trying to block it through pure obstructionism — then you have a weakened Tory party and a strengthened Labour one at precisely the time the Tories have annoyed the Lib Dems most.

So right now, any loss of MPs is a real, important worry for Cameron. It’s looking significantly less likely to me right now that the coalition will last another year…

EDIT but Clegg has said in his speech that Milliband has deliberately blocked any possible compromise, so it looks like Milliband isn’t playing it that way and Cameron is safe.

This entry was posted in politics and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to If I Was Cameron I’d Be Very Worried About Now…

  1. TAD says:

    Isn’t it time you guys had a revolution in Britain? Seriously, when was the last one you had, back in the Oliver Cromwell days? You guys are TOO stable.

  2. Hal says:

    It’s typical that the right-wing press try to put everything on the Liberal Democrats, so that if the LDs finally do what’s correct for them somehow it is *they* who are cynical and childish; never mind that the Lib Dems had been rolling over for the Tories prior to this due to being in the coalition, and it’s the *Tories* who haven’t lived up to their end of the bargain! Regardless of whether you are a Lib Dem -, Labour-, or even a Conservative-supporter I can’t see how anyone could pretend that it’s *not* the Tories who are being dishonourable, childish, and cynical here. Are those “conservative values”, one wouldn’t think so. But then I’m disgusted when people of a party seem only to vote *for* that party, even when it goes against honour and ethics to do so, conversely I admire those who go against this but it seems few are interested in that now, and thus the weak or those who hope for something *different*, *better* are left behind it seems… Truly I don’t see how anyone can see the LDs as the bad guys in this *particular* situation.

Comments are closed.