If I Was Cameron I’d Be Very Worried About Now…
So it’s looking less and less likely that Cameron will actually be able to get his party to keep their end of the coalition agreement on any important matters.
And now Louise Mensch has resigned.
Mensch is MP for a highly-marginal seat, which *will* fall to Labour in the by-election. That’s a drop of two in the government majority, right at the time the Lib Dems will be most completely disenchanted with the Tories.
It would take only a very small number of Tory MPs losing their seats, dying, or resigning to make the Parliamentary arithmetic much more unstable than it currently is. A handful of new Labour MPs — or a few Tory defections to UKIP — and it suddenly becomes much more possible for the Lib Dems to switch to working with Labour instead of the Tories.
If Milliband plays things right — if he decides to work with the Lib Dems to get Lords reform through, rather than the tactic he was recently taking of trying to block it through pure obstructionism — then you have a weakened Tory party and a strengthened Labour one at precisely the time the Tories have annoyed the Lib Dems most.
So right now, any loss of MPs is a real, important worry for Cameron. It’s looking significantly less likely to me right now that the coalition will last another year…
EDIT but Clegg has said in his speech that Milliband has deliberately blocked any possible compromise, so it looks like Milliband isn’t playing it that way and Cameron is safe.